As today, the mainstream media overwhelmingly favored the challenger. His re-election would be a surprise right up there with 1948 — or with 1992 in the U.K., where the Conservatives under John Major defied a recession to defeat Labour for the fourth consecutive election. He also fared unexpectedly well with Midwestern farmers, who had largely supported Dewey’s first presidential bid in 1944. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Behind the Picture: ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Harry Truman. In recent columns, experienced pundits from Peggy Noonan to Andrew Sullivan to Charlie Cook — none of them card-carrying Democrats — have dared to contemplate a landslide victory for Joe Biden. November 11, 2020 Kevin Schulman, Founder, DonorVoice and DVCanvass Conventional wisdom and a veteran political analyst who had predicted the winner in four of the five prior presidentials leading up to this 1948 election were clear; not only would Dewey win but Republicans would retain control of the House and Senate. Remarkably, the three-way split in the Democratic base did not scupper Truman. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. Indie rock band from San Diego, CA The obvious antecedent to Dewey Defeats Truman is Baime’s own The Accidental President (2017), which applies the author’s signature gift for gripping historical narrative to Truman’s tumultuous first four months in office following Franklin Roosevelt’s sudden death. What's missing is Chicago Tribune's most famous newspaper and headline … But “Dewey Defeats Truman,” from the Chicago Daily Tribune, is perhaps the most memorable headline in American political history, and it is the … —– [Post-Election Update: I was wrong, especially in the national tone of the election’s outcome. With that, forgive me for stepping just one day into the future! Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Dewey of course lost and the Democrats … DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN THE 1948 ELECTION AND THE BATTLE FOR AMERICA'S SOUL by A.J. Baime, a journalist and the author of “The Accidental President,” brings the epic back on stage with “Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America’s Soul,” a straightforward narrative studded with evocative detail and surprising factoids. Sherman A1: Jul 2020 #1: The mother of a friend of mine was a secretary. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Truman held together the New Deal coalition of urban Catholic, Jewish and organized-labor voters, and integrated the Northern black vote as a new pillar of Democratic Party support. All Rights Reserved. “I’m calling this trip a crusade. … Funny story written by Stefano M. Stefano. Harry S Truman Signed Framed 1962 Letter & Dewey Defeats Photo Display JSA . The surprise victory of the plain-spoken Democratic nominee, Harry S. Truman, … Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : "From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America." Ironically, this example is a downplay of the trope. President Truman was elected with a comfortable margin of 49.6 percent of the popular vote to Dewey’s 45.1 percent. 311 likes. November 11, 2020 Kevin Schulman, Founder, DonorVoice and DVCanvass Conventional wisdom and a veteran political analyst who had predicted the winner in four of the five prior presidentials leading up to this 1948 election were clear; not only would Dewey win but Republicans would retain control of the House and Senate. The 1948 presidential election was a bigger surprise than 2016, and has eerie parallels to 2020. Arguably the most famous headline in the newspaper’s 150-year history, DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN is every publisher’s nightmare on every election night. Like Biden, Dewey ran a low-risk, low-profile campaign, assuming the inevitability of his victory, on the advice of his highly experienced campaign managers. When the decision to print this paper was made, returns were coming in very slowly and time was running out before the deadline for the edition. American elections before the 1960s were highly labor-intensive, with the door-knocking and get-out-the-vote efforts coming largely from volunteer labor — for Democrats, from organized labor; for Republicans, from the Chamber of Commerce. Dewey gained endorsements from almost every major newspaper in America. A masterful retelling of a legend and famous headline of modern American history—Harry Truman’s upset victory over Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election. Offers may be subject to change without notice. And it was not only white working-class voters who felt this way. Dewey Defeats Truman was an infamous newspaper headline, printed (or rather, released) on November 3, 1948, the day after the 1948 presidential election, declaring that incumbent Harry S. Truman lost to challenger Thomas E. Dewey (), then-governor of New York.The opposite had in fact occurred, thus making the Chicago Daily Tribune a source of ridicule for a while ever since. Yes, as I argued here two weeks ago, I really can see the headline: “Biden Defeats Trump.” Gun to my head, I’d say the probability of a 2008-style blue wave is still roughly double that of a 1948-style upset. Hello, Sign in. Dewey Defeats Truman! The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). Click here to read the text of Truman’s 11/4/1948 remarks in St. Louis, Vincennes, Indiana and Cincinnati, Ohio. Americans were certain that President Harry S. Truman's political career was over. But I can also see the despised underdog incumbent’s triumphant grin as he holds that erroneous front page aloft. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. On Oct. 29, he told a roaring crowd in Queens to “throw the Galluping polls right into the ash can.”. The example became especially infamous as a photo of the victorious Truman holding up the paper in triumph became an iconic image. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions. What should have worried Dewey was that his lead in the Gallup poll shrank from 12 points in late August to 9 points by mid-October. How much do you worry about the coronavirus? It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”. My Halloween treat for one and all is 72 years old, dating back to just before Biden’s sixth birthday. ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Review: The Truman Show A month before the election, nine out of 10 U.S. newspapers endorsed Truman’s challenger. Dewey Defeats Truman Newspaper collectibles for sale including the iconic paper from the thChicago Tribune 1948 in which they incorrectly predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman in the presidential election. FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell My Personal Information | Ad Choices  Appreciable numbers of Latino and black voters did, too. At 10:14 a.m., Dewey conceded the election to Truman. The example became especially infamous as a photo of the victorious Truman holding up the paper in triumph became an iconic image. By ANDREW GLASS. Politically, the small town is basically populated by Republicans - other than a few furtive Democrats - and the summer of 1948 … In its final pre-election edition, Life magazine featured a glossy photo of Dewey and his staff with the caption, “Our Next President Rides by Ferryboat over San Francisco Bay.”, Newsweek surveyed 50 political experts on Oct. 11 and received unanimous confirmation that Dewey would win: “The landslide for Dewey will sweep the country.” Drew Pearson of the Washington Post “surveyed the closely-knit group around Tom Dewey who will take over the White House 86 days from now.”, As today, too, the press loathed the incumbent. The average American’s probability of catching Covid-19 this year has been much lower (less than 3%). Try Insufficient polling at the state level also played a part. It’s a crusade of the people against the special interests, and if you back me up we’re going to win …”, Covering 21,928 miles by train and delivering 275 speeches (largely in modern-day “flyover country”), Truman appealed to the so-called forgotten man neglected by an out-of-touch Washington establishment. Truman’s crushing 303-189 Electoral College victory rode on razor-thin margins in a handful of swing states. The Chicago Tribune printed "Dewey Defeats Truman" in reference to this prediction on the front page of its November 3 edition (the day after the election). "Dewey Defeats Truman" By A.J. In the months before the 1948 election, the polls gave the challenger comfortable margins of 5 to 15 points. Brother, can you spare a dime? On Sept. 9, pollster Elmo Roper announced that “Thomas E. Dewey is almost as good as elected … I can think of nothing duller or more intellectually barren than acting like a sports announcer who feels he must pretend he is witnessing a neck-and-neck race.” The Crossley Poll of Oct. 15 placed Dewey ahead in 27 states. The effective ground game of the Truman campaign was crucial in the final days of the race. Baime is also the author of another great micro-history, “The Accidental President”, also about Harry Truman, and his first four months in office. In what is generally regarded as the greatest upset in American political history, Truman beat the heavily-favored Republican governor of New York, Thomas Dewey, by a substantial Electoral College margin, 303 to 189, but by fewer than three million votes in the popular vote. In his book “Out of the Jaws of Victory,” the journalist Jules Abels noted that Dewey’s pitch for unity was “an issue which had no visceral appeal to the average American. Dewey Defeats Truman: The Rarely Told Story of Chicago Tribune's Most Famous Issue. Second, Truman’s attacks on his opponent, his party and its institutional backers were direct, personal and visceral, earning him the censure of the press and “respectable” politicians alike who recoiled from his “ungentlemanly” methods. If Trump wins all eight of those states, it doesn’t matter if he loses Michigan and Wisconsin: He’s a two-term president. Review written by Steve Nathans-Kelly. Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul by Bai. Did you know that Katharine Hepburn, Frank Lloyd Wright and Charlie Chaplin endorsed Wallace? The 14th Amendment could be his barrier to a future run. Gallup’s final voter survey a fortnight before the election showed him ahead by just 6 points. Photographer: Irving Haberman/IH Images/Getty Images, I can see the headline already: “Biden Defeats Trump.”. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. -- A good example is A J Baime’s new book, “Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle For America’s Soul”. All of this is not to predict that 2020 will be 1948 revisited. According to RealClear Politics, Trump support was growing in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio. -- But revisiting 1948 provides a salutary reminder that even bigger upsets have happened in the history of American presidential elections than the one that elected Donald Trump president in 2016. By morning, the headline was proven wrong. Progressive Democrats, getting cold feet over Truman’s record on civil rights and the Cold War, defected with former Vice President Henry Wallace to form the Progressive Party, while Dixiecrats rallied around Senator Strom Thurmond and the States’ Rights Democratic Party. “You are the government,” Truman told rapt audiences in cornfields and dusty rail towns. Click to read the full review of Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul in New York Journal of Books. Click here to read the text of Truman’s 11/4/1948 remarks in St. Louis, Vincennes, Indiana and Cincinnati, Ohio. C $31.56. He was previously a professor of history at Harvard, New York University and Oxford. And if it happens, the postmortem will go like this. There were also signs of a late Trump rally in Pennsylvania — I expect him to win in Scranton, Biden’s birthplace — and Arizona. Dewey Defeats Truman! America by 1946 were sick of the Democrats, who had held the US presidency since 1932. C $636.71. Last week, in what the pundit Mark Halperin calls the “significant six” states — Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — Biden was ahead in just three, and his leads were within the margin of error. As I write this, it’s early morning just before the polls open. Truman’s dirty laundry was scant, yet the studies Hoover prepared for Dewey examined Truman’s early ties to Kansas City boss Jim Pendergast for criminal wrongdoing. Brand New. 11/02/2018 12:00 AM EDT. On this day in 1948, in one of the least foreseen upsets in … Terms & Conditions. A shift of a mere 29,000 votes of 10,661,000 cast (0.27%) in three critical states would have handed Dewey electoral victory. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. Racism was rampant, foreign relations were … Like Trump, Truman also confronted institutional “deep state” opposition. Mindful of California’s electoral importance, he picked a Californian running mate, Governor Earl Warren. S&P Index data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes. Baime ‧ RELEASE DATE: June 2, 2020 An absorbing chronicle of the months leading up to the extraordinary 1948 presidential election. Set in 1948 in Owosso, Michigan - the real hometown of Thomas Dewey - the townspeople are transitioning from the war years to the Cold War years. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Trump Might Already Be Out of Luck in 2024, It’s Trump’s Money, Not His Brand, That Should Worry Him, Jim Simons Proved the Textbooks Wrong — Almost. Forget impeachment. Truman came second in all nine of the Gallup Poll’s post-convention surveys. A New York Herald Tribune reporter scathingly characterized Truman’s campaign as “bunkum piled higher than haystacks, and demagoguery tooting merrily down the track.”, But people were listening. The economy is recovering, but after a savage recession. He represented the moderate Eastern wing of his party, and in 1948 had fended off more ideologically right-wing primary challengers such as Senator Robert A. Taft of Ohio and General Douglas MacArthur. "Dewey Defeats Truman" was an incorrect banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune (later Chicago Tribune) on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President, Harry S. Truman, won an upset victory over Republican challenger and Governor of New York, Thomas E. Dewey, in the 1948 presidential election. Not only did Truman win the election, he … The Dewey Defeats Truman newspaper is arguably the most famous and sought after newspaper of all time. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. -- The final polls that year gave Labour a 1.5% lead; Major’s Tories won by 7.6% — a nine-point miss by the pollsters. In the Electoral College, Truman won 303–189. Truman’s wife, Bess, did not think Harry would win re-election. "Dewey Defeats Truman" was a famously inaccurate banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President Harry S. 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